PROTESTS AND REVOLTS IN THE ARAB WORLD

Six months have passed since the start of a wave of revolt in the Arab World. Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, a civil war in Libya, uprisings in many other Arab states forcing significant changes in the region where it's citizens are trying to find out how to establish democracies. What is really happening?


In January 2011, we have the first revolt in Tunisia. The month before, a university-educated young man, Mohamed Bouazizi, not having any other sources of income, started selling fruits in the street. A policeman stopped him, slapped him and insulted him. He went to the authorities to complaint but nobody wanted to listen. The frustrated 26-year-old, decided then to set himself on fire, in protest. He died several days later. When the public protests began louder, Tunisian strongman Zine El Abidine Ben Ali decided to leave his post and went in exile to Saudi Arabia. More than 200 people died during the uprising. The elections planned for this month were postponed by the interim government until October 23. Several other countries afterwards, in North Africa and the Middle East have been swept in protests against their longtime rulers.


In Egypt, most recently, the US administration open a dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood, one of the largest groups, saying "it is in the interest of the US to engage with all parties that are peaceful and committed to non-violence". Recently, demonstrators in Cairo were angry due to the absence of free elections, as well as, high food prices, low wages and high unemployment. The Muslim Brotherhood has a strong following in Egypt but is feared by both secular and liberal forces. When one looks back 60 years, when Maj. Gamal Abdel Nasser overthrew king Farouk and took over after the July 1952 coup, he had no plans for early elections as he was affraid that Mustafa al-Nahas, the head of the secular-liberal (and most popular) Wafd party will win. The Muslim Brotherhood, was also worried of a liberal victory, thus, they supported Nasser's decision then. How ironic? Nasser, on the other hand, ousted pro-democracy officers, minimize the power of the liberals and suppressed the Muslim Brotherhood, till then, his allies. Today, they are no Free Officers Movement and Egypt is governed (for the mean time) by the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, which is led by Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, a 75-yrs-old officer. At present, some roles have been reversed. The islamists are playing the role of the democrats, while the liberals are calling for the Army to continue rule. Although on the March 19 referendum, 77% of voters approved a apackage of constitutional amendments, which als called for an early election (by September), the Army, supported by the liberals, may have other plans. I predict that they will stay in power a bit longer, they will try to keep an important role in the running of the nation, and maybe try to form a "constitutional assembly" without elections. Egypt, a country of almost 85 million, with poor economic conditions - almost 1/5 of the citizens live below the poverty line, with shocking levels of unemployment - especially for the majority younger people, and volatile security situation, is a country that still remains on a 'watch' list. Don't forget that over 800 people died during the three weeks of violent protests, and still today, we have victims of the on-going protests.

LIBYA Protests started in February when demonstrators fed up with delays of a government-sponsored still on-going public housing project, broke into it and occupied it. They quickly gained strength in numbers and a movement started to demand democracy, freedoms and the ousting of Col. Moammar Gadhafi. This movement has exploded to a full civil war with rebel forces controlling several cities. Curent estimates of the death toll are in the thousands, Today, the US administration announced that they will recognize the main opposition rebels, the Transitional National Council, as the legitimate government of Libya. There are already 28 countries recognizing the rebels as the legitimate ruler. Many of the frozen account of the Kadhafi's government kept in foreign banks, can now end up in the hands of the rebels.

SYRIA - In mid-March, some teenagers were arrested in Daraa for writing anti-government graffiti on the walls. After the crackdown intensified, demonstrators changed their demands and were now asking for freedom and an end to abuses by the security forces - which already killed a large number of protesters. They also call for the overthrow of the regime. On April 19, Syrian Cabinet lifted an emergency law that have been in effect since 1963, but security forces than moved quickly to crash any protests. Opponents allege massive human rights abuses. More than 15000 Syrian refugees fled to Turkey to escape the government crackdown. The US placed sanctions against Pres. Bashar al-Assad. Protests remain strong. Amnesty International states that close to 1500 protesters have been killed since March 15. At the UN, western diplomats exchanged harsh words with the Syrian ambassador in the Security Council, when China and Russia threatened to veto a pending resolution condemning the violance in Syria, on the grounds that they do not want the UN to get involved in Syria's internal affairs! Of course, on ecan see clearly their motives! They are affraid to allow international organizations to get involve with abuses of human rights inside 'any' country!... including theirs.


In BAHRAIN, protesters initially took to the streets of Manama to demand reforms and the introduction of a constitutional monarchy. Many of them are now calling for the removal of the royal family. At least 29 people died during these protests. Troops from Saudi Arabia and UAE moved in to support Bahraini forces. Now, king Hamad bin Is al-Khalifa, assigned an independent commission to investigate charges of human rights abuses during the recent government crackdowns on pro-reform protesters. Mahmoud Cherif Bassiouni, a law professor and UN expert on war crimes, who will lead this commission, promised to carry out a fair, methodical and transparent investigation.

YEMEN - Inspired by the revolution in Egypt, demands began protesting Ai Abdullah SALEH's 33-year-old regime in February. A month later, Saleh offered a draft constitution that would establish a parliamentary system. Protesters persist in calling for his resignation. A number of military officers and government officials were dismissed as non-loyals to the president. Saleh made some overtures to step down but changed quickly his position and remains in power, although he was wounded in one of these attacks by protesters and had to go to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment. Fighting has escalated between security forces and militants, some of them suspected to be al-Qaeda connected.

JORDAN -The cabinet was fired after some protests begun in January. The king promised elections but not any specifics about timing, etc., and the prime minister was replaced.

MOROCCO - In February, after some protesters came out in the streets, political changes were promised by the king Mohammed VI. In July, there was a referendum in which voters approved changes in the constitution. Things remain calm at the moment.

SAUDI ARABIA - The government decided to spread money to keep her subjects happy and neutralize any developing opposition. More than $130 billion will go to salaries, housing and religious organizations - which are very important there. A large low-income housing complex is also planned in order to house many of the foreign workers and others in need of housing.


MY THOUGHTS:. Although things in many countries in the region are still unsettled, I predict that sooner or later, the people will win over the long-term rulers of these countries. The protests might even spread in other countries of the region, if current governments do not open up to the demands of their citizens or are able to buy their way out of these protests with the power of their wealth.
Unfortunately, many more human casualties will have to be counted until then..